Monday, May 5, 2014

NBA PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 PREDICTIONS


It's nearly fact that the first round of the 2014 NBA playoffs was the best we've ever seen. It seemed like every night I turned on my TV a record was being broken, a game was going down to the last second, or both. Although the 16 team field has finally been narrowed down to 8, let's take a moment to appreciate an incredible first round

5 Game 7's is simply unbelievable. It sets an NBA playoffs single round record and tied an NBA playoffs overall record, which will likely be broken in one of the remaining 7 series. There would have been 6 if not for Damien Lillard's heroics in Portland Friday night. 10 times, a game tying or go ahead basket was made in the final 24 seconds (6 of them in the Houston/Portland series). There were 14 4-point plays in the first round, smashing the previous record of 7. And then think of all the individual memories that didn't break records. Donald Sterling made national headlines but the Clips fought back, LeBron stared down Jordan on a dunk, Vince Carter gave us a blast from the past with that Game 3 buzzer beater, Tony Daniels knocked down 3 3's and the eventual game winner in Game 3 for Houston after only playing 50 minutes all year, Houston/Portland played 4 overtime games and all 6 games were decided by 10 points or less, OKC/Memphis played 4 straight OT games featuring 3 late 4-point plays, a Perkins buzzer beater, and a waved off Ibaka buzzer beater, Nene and Z-Bo got suspended for fighting, and....the 16 team field is now down to 8.

Although it's sad to see such a good round finally come to a close, the excitement is really only beginning as we still have 3 rounds worth of playoff basketball left. I'll be overjoyed if they're even half as good as their predecessor. As for my personal record, I correctly predicted 6/8 first round winners (missed Washington and Portland) but only had the correct amount of games for 1 of them (Clippers). But who foresaw Indiana, San Antonio and OKC playing in Game 7's so early. Basketball never stops, as round 2 will start immediately at 7pm EST, so here come my predictions.

#1 Indiana vs #5 Washington: Had we picked this series 2 weeks ago, 90% of people would say Indiana. Now it's not so certain. The Hawks gave the Pacers all that they could handle and pushed them to 7 games. Meanwhile the Wizards took quick care of Chicago and have been on break since Tuesday. It's tough to tell whether the Wizards are truly legitimate or if they benefited from a favorable match up with Chicago. Even though they are newcomers, John Wall and Bradley Beal are providing much better guard play than Lance Stephenson and George Hill are right now. But down low the Pacers have the advantage, especially if Roy Hibbert returns to All-Star form. It's tough to believe in the Pacers when they don't believe in themselves, and it's easier to pick Washington when they play with such confidence. Indiana barely survived the worst team in the playoffs, Washington dominated one of the most successful organizations. However, if the Pacers can play the kind of basketball we saw in game 7 they still have a pretty high shot at this series. 13 & 7 are basically Chamberlain numbers for Hibbert if you take into account the first 6 games and the defense was much better and looked more like what we saw the first half of the year when the Pacers had the best record in the NBA. This is either going to go Wizards in 6 or Pacers in 7. While the Pacers look like far from championship contenders, they have at least proven they are survivors, and I do believe they'll do it one more time.   Pacers in 7

#2 Miami vs #6 Brooklyn: Welp, the Nets got what they wanted when they decided to throw in the towel the last 2 games of the season and settle for the 6 seed, a match up with a 2 seeded Miami team that they've defeated 4 times already. Miami annually has one series where they get pushed to the brink for no good reason, and it's likely this is it, especially with the depth and physicality of the Nets. However, to believe any team could beat the Heat 8 times in one calendar year seems like quite the stretch. The Bulls swept the Heat 3-0 in 2010-11 and then lost in 5 to the Heat in the playoffs that year despite having homecourt advantage. The Nets are more keyed for a deep playoff run than ever before, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson set the tone early, but it's still the old goat Paul Pierce that gets called upon for late heroics. And it's a popular belief that he and Kevin Garnett were put on this planet to torture LeBron James. Regardless, it's probably time the Heat showed that ferocious side that they've been lacking all season, and though it's closer than they'd prefer, the champs prevail.    Heat in 6

#1 San Antonio vs #5 Portland: Here's a classic example of veteran leadership versus young blood. The series between the Spurs and the Mavs was a fun watch with all the experience, age, and future hall of famers on the court in the in-state rivalry. That being said, Portland is the kind of team Greg Popovich and his crew like to stomp on. The Spurs are much better defensively than both the Blazers and the Rockets and Portland isn't going to be able to win this series by simply hoping to outgun San Antonio on a nightly basis. Damien Lillard is rising to stardom but dealing with Tony Parker is going to be a lot more challenging than dealing with Patrick Beverly was. I'm sure Lillard and Lamarcus Aldridge will post some big numbers again throughout the series, but ultimately a young team looking to go deep must pay it's dues. Portland has a lot to be proud of, their first 50 win season since 2009 and their first playoff series win since 2000, but they're probably still a year away from a Western Conference finals appearance, and more years away from an NBA title. The Spurs are a now team and their hall of famers and veteran experience will take advantage of Blazer's mistakes throughout the series and earn them a spot in the Western finals for the 3rd straight year.

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #3 Los Angeles Clippers: This is in my opinion the most exciting series to watch of the 2nd round. The series contains the NBA leaders in points (Durant), rebounds (Jordan) assists (Paul) steals (Paul) and blocks (Jordan). Then you throw Russel Westbrook and Blake Griffin into the mix and it's going to be quite a show. The Clippers displayed true mental toughness to rebound from the distractions within the organization and take out Golden State, the kind of thing that you can use as motivation and spin into something really special. You get the vibe the Clippers feel as if they have paid their dues with all of their early exits and are finally poised for a championship run. But truthfully, the playoffs have been historically unkind to the Clips and they're trying to accomplish something they've never accomplished before. On the other end of the spectrum, the relatively new Oklahoma City Thunder have made the playoffs all but once in franchise history. However, this is present day and I think the match up favors the Clippers. LA will be able to do as Memphis did punishing the Thunder inside with Griffin and Jordan, and frankly the Memphis series exploited the Thunder as a 2 man team whereas the Clips are much deeper and well rounded. As long as LA isn't too emotionally spent, they have the tools and ability to do something the franchise has never done.    Clips in 7




















Saturday, April 19, 2014

NBA PLAYOFFS 1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS


     March Madness has come to a conclusion once again, and the end of March Madness means the beginning of April which means it's time for the NBA to steal the spotlight for 2 months. The 30 team league has been narrowed down to 16 hopefuls. Though we don't expect anywhere close to the same spontaneity as college basketball provided us, with more than half the league still in play things should be interesting. In fact, this marks the first time in playoff history that the Lakers, Celtics, and Knicks have all missed the playoffs. This opens a huge door for up and coming franchises. This article will break down and offer a prediction of each of the 8 first round match ups that will take place over the next 2 weeks.

Eastern Conference

#1 Indiana Pacers vs #8 Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta is the only team in the field without a winning record, entering the post season 6 games under .500. Even more concerning is the fact that they've only won 14 times on the road, which is where they'll spend the entirety of their playoff journey. The lone chance the Hawks have to make things interesting for the Pacers is their ability to drill the 3 ball, as all 5 Hawks starters made at least 55 3's this season. Due to that and the fact that the Pacers have lost 13 of their final 23, I don't believe this will be a sweep. But a team that lives/dies by its 3 point shooting isn't likely to take a 7 game series from a defensively sound team either, especially on the road. Pacers take care of business 4-1.

#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Charlotte Bobcats: I'm gonna lay this out pretty simply; the Heat are 15-0 against the Bobcats during the Big 3 era. Sure, Charlotte has made drastic improvements in the last 2 years since posting the worst winning percentage in NBA history, and there's a lot to be proud of in that. But still to think a healthy Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, and Gerald Henderson can stand up to LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh in a 7 game series is almost laughable. I'll throw Charlotte a bone and say they win a game because to believe any team could beat another 19 times in a row at the professional level is very bold; but they won't get more than one. Heat win in 5.

#3. Toronto Raptors vs #6 Brooklyn Nets: The Nets really could be the Dark Horse to win this entire thing. The second half turnaround they've made is incredible, Jason Kidd went from nearly being fired to likely coach of the year candidate. The Nets finally have their superstars playing in cohesion, even without Brook Lopez. They settled for the 6th seed by resting their guys the last 2 games. Meanwhile, if you haven't been following the NBA lately, it would probably greatly surprise you to find out the Raptors posted the East's 3rd best record. Even if you did watch you probably still found it rather abnormal. The teams split the season series 2-2, with 3 of the 4 meetings decided by 4 points or less. AKA: it's going to be a long series. Even though the Raptors hold the homecourt, the Nets are playing better and have bigger star power and experience to carry them through a tough series on the road, especially with KG gaining health. Nets 4-2.

#4. Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Washington Wizards: Once again, the Bulls proved that they can still be one of the conferences' best without franchise player/crybaby Derrick Rose. (Seriously, he outdid himself by playing a whole 10 games this season before calling it quits!). Joakim Noah in particular carried the load for Chicago to get them where are now. Washington's here thanks to a good blend of youth and experience. Washington's seasoning at the guard position has finally paid off with John Wall and Bradley Beal continue to improve as time goes on. Down low Washington owes their success to established veterans Nene and Marcin Gortat. Like Charlotte, this taste of success is unique to Washington, their first playoff appearance since the Gilbert Arenas era. However, I predict the experience and physical smash mouth style of the Bulls will overcome the young legs of Washington. Bulls in 6.

Western Conference

#1. San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Dallas Mavericks: San Antonio has to be the hands down favorite to win it all right now. The Spurs have only lost 4 games since the All-Star break, and they're deeper than ever as no Spurs player averaged 30 minutes per game. They've won the last 9 against the Mavericks, many of which have not been close. Though we've seen many great Spurs teams over the past decade and a half, none have seemed more confident and hungry than this year's edition. Ray Allen's game 6 shot is still burned into their memory, and they've channeled that into motivation and are out for blood. It seems pretty hopeless for a Dallas team filled with old goats. The Spurs are also completely healthy which minimizes the chances for Dallas to catch Greg Popovich's team off guard even for a game. I'm predicting a 4-0 San Antonio sweep.

#2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs #7 Memphis Grizzlies: One of the biggest storylines going into the 2013-14 playoffs is Kevin Durant chasing that elusive NBA championship trophy. Durant is playing the best basketball of his career, Westbrook's late injury last year challenged Durant to add new elements to his game and he has risen to the occasion. Memphis put Oklahoma City out of the playoffs last year while Westbrook healed and the Thunder should seek vengeance. Memphis won't go down without a fight, and they'll be able to bother OKC physically with Marc Gasol and Z-Bo inside balanced with the guard play of Mike Conely. But with Westbrook healthy this time around, the Grizzlies won't be able to focus solely on Durant with the double and triple teams we saw last year. There will be some close games in this series, but they will mostly roll in the Thunder's favor. OKC in 5.

#3. Los Angeles Clippers vs #6 Golden State Warriors: I believe this is going to be a lot closer than most of you may think. Golden State can really scare people with their ability to shoot the basketball. When Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes are feeling it offensively all bets are off. Iguodala and Lee are fighting through injuries, but Andrew Bogut has been a huge help off the bench leading the team in rebounds and blocks while shooting 63% from the field. Lee and Bogut will be enough to cause trouble for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan inside and Steph Curry vs Chris Paul is going to be a classic match up at the point guard position as well. Factor in the Clipper's franchise history of post season struggles and things really don't look bad at all for Golden State, the Clippers have only won 3 playoff series ever, and never advanced past the Western semis. However this is also one of the best teams in Clipper's history, and Doc Rivers has taken them to another level of ability and self-belief. I believe this series will be very close thanks to a couple of offensive outpours from Golden State but ultimately the experience and leadership of L.A. will be just enough to hurdle them over the hump and pick up a much needed playoff victory for the franchise. Clippers 4-3.

#4. Houston Rockets vs #5 Portland Trailblazers: At one point in time, each of these teams looked to be bigger threats than they are seen as now. The Rockets seemed to be the best post New Year's team for the first couple months before fading out and settling for the 4 seed. The Trailblazers made noise early keeping pace with San Antonio and OKC with the Western lead for the first few months. Now they meet as middle class Western opponents in the first round. For Portland it's been the result of youth finally maturing as Lamarcus Aldridge, Damien Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Nicholas Batum have all been in the league 7 years or less. For Houston, the focus has more been on superstars, bringing in James Harden, Dwight Howard, and Jeremy Lin to Houston in the last 2 seasons of free agency. Houston's ability to score constantly along with Portland's weak bench will be the difference maker that sets up an in-state match up between the Rockets and the Spurs. Houston 4-2.