Monday, May 5, 2014

NBA PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 PREDICTIONS


It's nearly fact that the first round of the 2014 NBA playoffs was the best we've ever seen. It seemed like every night I turned on my TV a record was being broken, a game was going down to the last second, or both. Although the 16 team field has finally been narrowed down to 8, let's take a moment to appreciate an incredible first round

5 Game 7's is simply unbelievable. It sets an NBA playoffs single round record and tied an NBA playoffs overall record, which will likely be broken in one of the remaining 7 series. There would have been 6 if not for Damien Lillard's heroics in Portland Friday night. 10 times, a game tying or go ahead basket was made in the final 24 seconds (6 of them in the Houston/Portland series). There were 14 4-point plays in the first round, smashing the previous record of 7. And then think of all the individual memories that didn't break records. Donald Sterling made national headlines but the Clips fought back, LeBron stared down Jordan on a dunk, Vince Carter gave us a blast from the past with that Game 3 buzzer beater, Tony Daniels knocked down 3 3's and the eventual game winner in Game 3 for Houston after only playing 50 minutes all year, Houston/Portland played 4 overtime games and all 6 games were decided by 10 points or less, OKC/Memphis played 4 straight OT games featuring 3 late 4-point plays, a Perkins buzzer beater, and a waved off Ibaka buzzer beater, Nene and Z-Bo got suspended for fighting, and....the 16 team field is now down to 8.

Although it's sad to see such a good round finally come to a close, the excitement is really only beginning as we still have 3 rounds worth of playoff basketball left. I'll be overjoyed if they're even half as good as their predecessor. As for my personal record, I correctly predicted 6/8 first round winners (missed Washington and Portland) but only had the correct amount of games for 1 of them (Clippers). But who foresaw Indiana, San Antonio and OKC playing in Game 7's so early. Basketball never stops, as round 2 will start immediately at 7pm EST, so here come my predictions.

#1 Indiana vs #5 Washington: Had we picked this series 2 weeks ago, 90% of people would say Indiana. Now it's not so certain. The Hawks gave the Pacers all that they could handle and pushed them to 7 games. Meanwhile the Wizards took quick care of Chicago and have been on break since Tuesday. It's tough to tell whether the Wizards are truly legitimate or if they benefited from a favorable match up with Chicago. Even though they are newcomers, John Wall and Bradley Beal are providing much better guard play than Lance Stephenson and George Hill are right now. But down low the Pacers have the advantage, especially if Roy Hibbert returns to All-Star form. It's tough to believe in the Pacers when they don't believe in themselves, and it's easier to pick Washington when they play with such confidence. Indiana barely survived the worst team in the playoffs, Washington dominated one of the most successful organizations. However, if the Pacers can play the kind of basketball we saw in game 7 they still have a pretty high shot at this series. 13 & 7 are basically Chamberlain numbers for Hibbert if you take into account the first 6 games and the defense was much better and looked more like what we saw the first half of the year when the Pacers had the best record in the NBA. This is either going to go Wizards in 6 or Pacers in 7. While the Pacers look like far from championship contenders, they have at least proven they are survivors, and I do believe they'll do it one more time.   Pacers in 7

#2 Miami vs #6 Brooklyn: Welp, the Nets got what they wanted when they decided to throw in the towel the last 2 games of the season and settle for the 6 seed, a match up with a 2 seeded Miami team that they've defeated 4 times already. Miami annually has one series where they get pushed to the brink for no good reason, and it's likely this is it, especially with the depth and physicality of the Nets. However, to believe any team could beat the Heat 8 times in one calendar year seems like quite the stretch. The Bulls swept the Heat 3-0 in 2010-11 and then lost in 5 to the Heat in the playoffs that year despite having homecourt advantage. The Nets are more keyed for a deep playoff run than ever before, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson set the tone early, but it's still the old goat Paul Pierce that gets called upon for late heroics. And it's a popular belief that he and Kevin Garnett were put on this planet to torture LeBron James. Regardless, it's probably time the Heat showed that ferocious side that they've been lacking all season, and though it's closer than they'd prefer, the champs prevail.    Heat in 6

#1 San Antonio vs #5 Portland: Here's a classic example of veteran leadership versus young blood. The series between the Spurs and the Mavs was a fun watch with all the experience, age, and future hall of famers on the court in the in-state rivalry. That being said, Portland is the kind of team Greg Popovich and his crew like to stomp on. The Spurs are much better defensively than both the Blazers and the Rockets and Portland isn't going to be able to win this series by simply hoping to outgun San Antonio on a nightly basis. Damien Lillard is rising to stardom but dealing with Tony Parker is going to be a lot more challenging than dealing with Patrick Beverly was. I'm sure Lillard and Lamarcus Aldridge will post some big numbers again throughout the series, but ultimately a young team looking to go deep must pay it's dues. Portland has a lot to be proud of, their first 50 win season since 2009 and their first playoff series win since 2000, but they're probably still a year away from a Western Conference finals appearance, and more years away from an NBA title. The Spurs are a now team and their hall of famers and veteran experience will take advantage of Blazer's mistakes throughout the series and earn them a spot in the Western finals for the 3rd straight year.

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #3 Los Angeles Clippers: This is in my opinion the most exciting series to watch of the 2nd round. The series contains the NBA leaders in points (Durant), rebounds (Jordan) assists (Paul) steals (Paul) and blocks (Jordan). Then you throw Russel Westbrook and Blake Griffin into the mix and it's going to be quite a show. The Clippers displayed true mental toughness to rebound from the distractions within the organization and take out Golden State, the kind of thing that you can use as motivation and spin into something really special. You get the vibe the Clippers feel as if they have paid their dues with all of their early exits and are finally poised for a championship run. But truthfully, the playoffs have been historically unkind to the Clips and they're trying to accomplish something they've never accomplished before. On the other end of the spectrum, the relatively new Oklahoma City Thunder have made the playoffs all but once in franchise history. However, this is present day and I think the match up favors the Clippers. LA will be able to do as Memphis did punishing the Thunder inside with Griffin and Jordan, and frankly the Memphis series exploited the Thunder as a 2 man team whereas the Clips are much deeper and well rounded. As long as LA isn't too emotionally spent, they have the tools and ability to do something the franchise has never done.    Clips in 7